Latest Papers

The latest papers published in the World Economics Journal.



A Statistician’s Ordeal - The Case of Andreas Georgiou A Statistician’s Ordeal - The Case of Andreas Georgiou
Miranda Xafa, World Economics, September 2019
For the past eight years Andreas Georgiou has been facing prosecution for the way he discharged his duties while he was president of Greece’s statistical agency (ELSTAT) in 2010-15. His detractors claim that Greece was forced to face harsher conditionality because the d ... More


Measuring Natural Capital and the Causes of Deforestation Measuring Natural Capital and the Causes of Deforestation
Brian Sturgess, World Economics, September 2019
This study looks at the measurement of the extent, causes and consequences of deforestation as a depletion of a stock of natural capital, a topic of interest to national statistics offices (NSO) in the preparation of satellite accounts. Currently many anomalies and unr ... More


A Comparison of Different Methods of Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy A Comparison of Different Methods of Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy
Friedrich Schneider & Stefan D. Haigner, World Economics, September 2019
This paper describes and criticizes the MIMIC estimation method due to a double counting problem; a correction is suggested. The measurement methods used for National Accounts Statistics are discussed – the discrepancy method and two new micro survey methods – are desc ... More


Disentangling Foreign Direct Investments Disentangling Foreign Direct Investments
Michael Plouffe, World Economics, September 2019
I describe multinational corporations’ (MNCs’) motivations for engaging in foreign direct investment (FDI) rather than other forms of internationalisation. When it comes to understanding the underlying determinants of an investment, some of the issues presented by FDI s ... More


The Changing Quality of Employment and the Sequencing of Reforms in China The Changing Quality of Employment and the Sequencing of Reforms in China
Nomaan Majid, World Economics, September 2019
The paper charts the process through which employment has been transformed in China. Measures of employment quality captured by estimates of regular and non-regular employment and unemployment are used to form a view of the changing employment situation. The increase in ... More


China’s Monetary Policy Functions from the Core Inflation Perspective China’s Monetary Policy Functions from the Core Inflation Perspective
Yu Li Zhu & Lu Chang Rong, World Economics, September 2019
Based on the open-economy new Keynesian model, this paper studies the influence of core inflation on the central bank’s monetary policy reaction rules by optimising the multi-target welfare loss functions, and draws three conclusions. Sustainable balance of payments sh ... More


Data Quality Rating: China Data Quality Rating: China
World Economics
World Economics, September 2019
The quality of GDP data in China is improving, and up to date in many respects. But is still some way from good quality. Use with caution! ... More


Is the Business Environment a Matter of Political Economy and Convergence? Is the Business Environment a Matter of Political Economy and Convergence?
Michael Chibba & John M. Luiz, World Economics, September 2019
In this article, the central question addressed is: does the business environment entail a complex nexus of political economy and other factors (government, business, ideology, and leadership) that may or may not manifest convergence? Also, the role of metrics and data ... More


The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s European Ambitions The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s European Ambitions
Theodore Pelagidis & Hercules Haralambides, World Economics, September 2019
Recent research shows that a 10% improvement in connectivity between countries along the “Maritime Silk Road” would deliver a 3% decrease in Chinese trade costs, which would in turn boost China’s imports and exports by around 6% and 9% respectively. We identify two ‘mi ... More


Monetary Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union Monetary Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union: What are the Issues?
Marina Hamilton & Graham Bird, World Economics, September 2019
The members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) are continuing to discuss establishing a currency union. Do the characteristics of the EEU economies meet the criteria identified by optimum currency area theory, covering fiscal convergence, exchange rate stability, the ... More


The NTV Model for Total Factor Productivity The NTV Model for Total Factor Productivity
Andrew Smithers, World Economics, June 2019
The consensus model for total factor productivity is unsatisfactory; the alternative, non-technology variables (‘NTV’) model resolves the objections to it and should therefore be preferred by economists. The key objections to the consensus model are that it is untestab ... More


National Output as Interest on National Capital National Output as Interest on National Capital
John Hartwick, World Economics, June 2019
Current national output can be consider as deriving from a collection of capital goods, including a natural capital good. A model is created which considers Net National Product as interest on capital in the economy: a new approach which touches in a non-trivial way on ... More


A Modest Challenge to GDP Reforms A Modest Challenge to GDP Reforms: An Economist’s View
Mitsuhiko Iyoda, World Economics, June 2019
This paper explores the importance and possibility of GDP reform by examining the weaknesses of the current GDP concept. The GDP concept itself involves flawed metrics; there are more effective measures of economic and societal well-being. Here we limit our argument to ... More


Did Rating Agencies Make the Euro Crisis Worse? Did Rating Agencies Make the Euro Crisis Worse?
Colin Ellis, World Economics, June 2019
There is a commonly held belief that the euro debt crisis was exacerbated by a spiral of higher yields resulting from rating agencies downgrading euro area sovereigns, but there has been little formal analysis of this hypothesis. Data on ratings and market signals on cr ... More


Estimating Loss-in-Output as a Cost of a Financial Crisis Estimating Loss-in-Output as a Cost of a Financial Crisis
Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, June 2019
The global financial crisis caused a huge loss of economic output, depletion of financial wealth, extended unemployment, psychological consequences and other significant costs. A quantitative exploration of modelling loss-in-output as a cost of financial crisis using m ... More


How Accurate are Global Trade-Finance Data? How Accurate are Global Trade-Finance Data?
Brian Sturgess, World Economics, June 2019
Over 80% of international trade is financed by some form of credit, but the size of the trade finance market has received little attention by economists. It has been estimated that there is currently a world trade finance gap of around US$1.5 trillion acting as a drag o ... More


Income Inequality and Foreign Direct Investment in Australia Income Inequality and Foreign Direct Investment in Australia: A Comprehensive Review
Anna Ploszaj, Tarlok Singh & Jen-Je Su, World Economics, June 2019
Income, wealth and consumption are three main factors that determine people’s standard of living. Many organisations in Australia report that in recent years the Australian standard of living has been changing, with some people falling behind. This paper examines the ma ... More


Why Do Currency Crises Recur? Why Do Currency Crises Recur?: Lessons from Argentina and Turkey
Graham Bird, Graham Bird & Graham Bird, World Economics, June 2019
Argentina and Turkey experienced currency crises in 2018, having also had crises in 2001. Why do crises recur? There are three generations of model that help to explain in theory why currency crises occur, although in practice the theories need to be amalgamated. The re ... More