Latest Papers

The latest papers published in the World Economics Journal.



Major Problems Persist with UK Price Inflation Data Major Problems Persist with UK Price Inflation Data
World Economics Research Programme
World Economics, March 2020
The Economics Affairs Committee of the House of Lords has published a damning report on the measurement of inflation statistics in the UK. The House of Lords Report number 246 Measuring Inflation accuses the UK Statistics Authority of being at risk of a “breach of its s ... More


Global Population Data Quality Ratings Global Population Data Quality Ratings
World Economics Research Programme
World Economics, March 2020
The accuracy of population data varies widely across countries. The most comprehensive data on the number of people living in a territory and their demographic profile, a vital component for public sector economic and social planning and also for private sector needs, i ... More


The Alarming Problems Caused By Misleading Trade Data The Alarming Problems Caused By Misleading Trade Data
World Economics Research Programme
World Economics, March 2020
The fact that world exports do not match world imports indicates that there are serious problems with official trade statistics. ... More


The Debate Over the Depreciation of Intangible Capital The Debate Over the Depreciation of Intangible Capital
Andrew Smithers, World Economics, March 2020
Spending on intellectual property (IP) is classed in national income accounts (NIA) as investment and represents a proportion of total investment as measured. It is, however, rapidly depreciated so that it has only a minor impact on gross domestic product (GDP). Some e ... More


Measuring Modern Business Investment: A Case Study for Germany Measuring Modern Business Investment: A Case Study for Germany
Michael Grömling, World Economics, March 2020
An extended concept for intangible investment does not lead to additional investment momentum in the case of Germany. This corresponds to experiences with former extension of investments in national accounts. Also, growth in real GDP and the related labour productivity ... More


Climate Change and Economic Policy Climate Change and Economic Policy
Julian Gough, World Economics, March 2020
Analysis of data for the last two decades showed global temperatures on a plateau and little correlation of global temperatures with the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The so-called ‘consensus’ theory of climate change is currently failing to predict ... More


Tackling the Double Injustice: How Citizens Evaluate Climate and Welfare Policies Tackling the Double Injustice: How Citizens Evaluate Climate and Welfare Policies
Max Koch & Martin Fritz, World Economics, March 2020
Ambitious climate policies have distributional consequences. These require countervailing social policies to keep climate targets acceptable for the electorate. This article analyses data from the European Social Survey as to whether attitudes in relation to climate an ... More


Cryptocurrency Challenges Sovereign Currency Cryptocurrency Challenges Sovereign Currency
George C. Georgiou, World Economics, March 2020
All national and international monetary structures have evolved to assist in the creation and management of sovereign fiat currencies. This sovereign currency status quo was suddenly upended with the arrival of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, in 2008 which introduce ... More


New Theory of the Business Environment New Theory of the Business Environment: Comprehensive and multidimensional with political economy at its core
Michael Chibba, World Economics, March 2020
Political economy is a core factor in the business environment, where either convergence or divergence are essential characteristics. This paper outlines, with a formula, illustrations and five country ratings, a new theory of the business environment that is comprehens ... More


Fiscal Federalism: Data Analytics Perspective Fiscal Federalism: Data Analytics Perspective
Nitin Singh, World Economics, March 2020
Goods and service tax (GST) is a value-added tax which is levied on goods and services sold and consumed domestically within a country. Although GST is paid by customers it is remitted to the government by the businesses selling the goods and services. The implementatio ... More


Greek Economy: Between Optimism and Substandard Growth Greek Economy: Between Optimism and Substandard Growth
Theodore Pelagidis, World Economics, March 2020
Is Greece’s economy back to normal after the victory of liberal-conservatives in last summer’s elections? The Greek economy is certainly out of the doldrums but structural problems are still in place. The economy desperately needs foreign capital inflows, the most chall ... More


Coronavirus: Case for Digital Money? Coronavirus: Case for Digital Money?
Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew , World Economics, March 2020
We discuss the advantages of adopting government-issued digital currencies and a supranational digital iCurrency. This will get rid of paper money, a ubiquitous medium for spreading germs, as highlighted by the recent coronavirus outbreak. We set forth three policy re ... More


The Impact of Income and Unemployment on Suicide in Scandinavian Countries The Impact of Income and Unemployment on Suicide in Scandinavian Countries
Balash Babayeva, World Economics, March 2020
This article experimentally investigates how economic factors in Scandinavian countries affected the suicide rates between 1991 and 2010. Notwithstanding factors affecting suicide in Scandinavian countries have been studied, there are no studies on the relationship betw ... More


The Socioeconomic Plight of Carpet Weavers of Kashmir The Socioeconomic Plight of Carpet Weavers of Kashmir
Tariq Ahmad Lone, Tariq Ahmad Bhat & Parveez Ahmad Lone, World Economics, March 2020
Weaving is a method of textile production in which two distinct sets of yarns or threads are interlaced at right angles to form a fabric or cloth. Kashmir handicraft products have earned worldwide fame for their attractive designs, functional utility and high-quality cr ... More


How to Increase your Countries GDP How to Increase your Countries GDP
World Economics Research Programme
World Economics, December 2019
There are three ways to increase the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of any country. First, by producing more goods and services in a given time frame. This is not easy. Second, by fiddling the figures, a method often adopted by politicians of all kinds, as the econom ... More


Global Trade Data Global Trade Data
World Economics Research Programme
World Economics, December 2019
There are serious problems with official trade statistics since according to the IMF in 2016 the world imported US$339 billion more than it exported. The Ricardian concept of comparative advantage in final goods is no longer fully relevant to explain trade between count ... More


Global Population Data Accuracy Ratings Global Population Data Accuracy Ratings
World Economics Research Programme
World Economics, December 2019
The accuracy of population data varies widely across countries. The most comprehensive data on the number of people living in a territory and their demographic profile, a vital component for public sector economic and social planning and also for private sector needs, i ... More


Central Banking and Climate Change Central Banking and Climate Change: A Policy Revolution Under Way
Stuart P.M. Mackintosh, World Economics, December 2019
A central bank revolution on climate change policy parallel to the 2015 Paris Agreement on steps to limit global temperature increases in this century may be under way, to achieve the essential collective carbon neutrality goals. In 2015 Mark Carney, governor of the Ban ... More


Thrown Away Thrice Thrown Away Thrice: The global second-hand clothes trade expires on the beaches of Africa
Lionel Stanbrook, World Economics, December 2019
Thousands of garment-making businesses throughout West Africa have been destroyed over the past few generations by his shabby international exploitation which was been hand in glove with the elimination of traditional garment-making businesses by aggressive European, US ... More


The Cause of Disinflation The Cause of Disinflation
Jang C. Jin, World Economics, December 2019
An empirical model estimates the effects of central bank independence and increasing globalisation on recent disinflation. The model that includes the globalisation measure is found to fit the data better than the one with central bank independence alone. Using pooled s ... More


Resurrecting Industrial Policy as Development Policy based on Korean Experiences Resurrecting Industrial Policy as Development Policy based on Korean Experiences
Sung-Hee Jwa & Sung-Kyu Lee, World Economics, December 2019
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the key economic policy paradigm of the Park Chung-hee administration in Korea was based on a ‘heavy-chemical industrialisation policy’, not ‘export-led growth policy’ as insisted by mainstream economics academia. It also ... More


Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Economics Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Economics: Should Floating Be Clean or Dirty?
Graham Bird, World Economics, December 2019
In the period since the global economic and financial crisis in 2008/09, emerging economies have encountered both surges and reversals of international capital. Rising interest rates and economic growth in the USA may in the future lead to them facing further relatively ... More


Measuring the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in South Africa: A Comprehensive Review Measuring the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in South Africa: A Comprehensive Review
Kore Marc Guei, World Economics, December 2019
There is strong evidence that regional trade agreements in force have caused South Africa to increase its aggregate trade with less efficient member countries at the expense of the more efficient ones. Using disaggregated data the European Union Free Trade Agreement ha ... More


iCurrency? iCurrency?
Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, World Economics, December 2019
We discuss the idea of a purely algorithmic universal world iCurrency in light of recent developments, including Libra. We analyze the Libra proposal, including the stability and volatility aspects, and discuss various issues to be addressed. For example, one cannot exp ... More


Combining Growth and Gender Diagnostics for the Benefit of Both Combining Growth and Gender Diagnostics for the Benefit of Both
Elena Ianchovichina & Danny Leipziger, World Economics, December 2019
Women’s economic empowerment is not a new issue, but it continues to challenge both governments and development assistance agencies. Progress in closing the gender gap in labor force participation has stalled despite closing the gender gap in education. One reason for ... More


Does Phillips Curve Really Exist in India? Does Phillips Curve Really Exist in India?
Tariq Ahmad Bhat, Tariq Ahmad Lone & Towseef Mohi ud Din, World Economics, December 2019
The hypothetical trade-off relationship between inflation and unemployment rate known as the Phillips Curve. It plays an important role in the decision-making process, to stabilise the economy and to target these variables to keep them as low as possible. This study an ... More


A Statistician’s Ordeal - The Case of Andreas Georgiou A Statistician’s Ordeal - The Case of Andreas Georgiou
Miranda Xafa, World Economics, September 2019
For the past eight years Andreas Georgiou has been facing prosecution for the way he discharged his duties while he was president of Greece’s statistical agency (ELSTAT) in 2010-15. His detractors claim that Greece was forced to face harsher conditionality because the d ... More


Measuring Natural Capital and the Causes of Deforestation Measuring Natural Capital and the Causes of Deforestation
Brian Sturgess, World Economics, September 2019
This study looks at the measurement of the extent, causes and consequences of deforestation as a depletion of a stock of natural capital, a topic of interest to national statistics offices (NSO) in the preparation of satellite accounts. Currently many anomalies and unr ... More


A Comparison of Different Methods of Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy A Comparison of Different Methods of Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy
Friedrich Schneider & Stefan D. Haigner, World Economics, September 2019
This paper describes and criticizes the MIMIC estimation method due to a double counting problem; a correction is suggested. The measurement methods used for National Accounts Statistics are discussed – the discrepancy method and two new micro survey methods – are desc ... More


Disentangling Foreign Direct Investments Disentangling Foreign Direct Investments
Michael Plouffe, World Economics, September 2019
I describe multinational corporations’ (MNCs’) motivations for engaging in foreign direct investment (FDI) rather than other forms of internationalisation. When it comes to understanding the underlying determinants of an investment, some of the issues presented by FDI s ... More


The Changing Quality of Employment and the Sequencing of Reforms in China The Changing Quality of Employment and the Sequencing of Reforms in China
Nomaan Majid, World Economics, September 2019
The paper charts the process through which employment has been transformed in China. Measures of employment quality captured by estimates of regular and non-regular employment and unemployment are used to form a view of the changing employment situation. The increase in ... More


China’s Monetary Policy Functions from the Core Inflation Perspective China’s Monetary Policy Functions from the Core Inflation Perspective
Yu Li Zhu & Lu Chang Rong, World Economics, September 2019
Based on the open-economy new Keynesian model, this paper studies the influence of core inflation on the central bank’s monetary policy reaction rules by optimising the multi-target welfare loss functions, and draws three conclusions. Sustainable balance of payments sh ... More


Data Quality Rating: China Data Quality Rating: China
World Economics
World Economics, September 2019
The quality of GDP data in China is improving, and up to date in many respects. But is still some way from good quality. Use with caution! ... More


Is the Business Environment a Matter of Political Economy and Convergence? Is the Business Environment a Matter of Political Economy and Convergence?
Michael Chibba & John M. Luiz, World Economics, September 2019
In this article, the central question addressed is: does the business environment entail a complex nexus of political economy and other factors (government, business, ideology, and leadership) that may or may not manifest convergence? Also, the role of metrics and data ... More


The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s European Ambitions The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s European Ambitions
Theodore Pelagidis & Hercules Haralambides, World Economics, September 2019
Recent research shows that a 10% improvement in connectivity between countries along the “Maritime Silk Road” would deliver a 3% decrease in Chinese trade costs, which would in turn boost China’s imports and exports by around 6% and 9% respectively. We identify two ‘mi ... More


Monetary Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union Monetary Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union: What are the Issues?
Marina Hamilton & Graham Bird, World Economics, September 2019
The members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) are continuing to discuss establishing a currency union. Do the characteristics of the EEU economies meet the criteria identified by optimum currency area theory, covering fiscal convergence, exchange rate stability, the ... More


The NTV Model for Total Factor Productivity The NTV Model for Total Factor Productivity
Andrew Smithers, World Economics, June 2019
The consensus model for total factor productivity is unsatisfactory; the alternative, non-technology variables (‘NTV’) model resolves the objections to it and should therefore be preferred by economists. The key objections to the consensus model are that it is untestab ... More


National Output as Interest on National Capital National Output as Interest on National Capital
John Hartwick, World Economics, June 2019
Current national output can be consider as deriving from a collection of capital goods, including a natural capital good. A model is created which considers Net National Product as interest on capital in the economy: a new approach which touches in a non-trivial way on ... More


A Modest Challenge to GDP Reforms A Modest Challenge to GDP Reforms: An Economist’s View
Mitsuhiko Iyoda, World Economics, June 2019
This paper explores the importance and possibility of GDP reform by examining the weaknesses of the current GDP concept. The GDP concept itself involves flawed metrics; there are more effective measures of economic and societal well-being. Here we limit our argument to ... More


Did Rating Agencies Make the Euro Crisis Worse? Did Rating Agencies Make the Euro Crisis Worse?
Colin Ellis, World Economics, June 2019
There is a commonly held belief that the euro debt crisis was exacerbated by a spiral of higher yields resulting from rating agencies downgrading euro area sovereigns, but there has been little formal analysis of this hypothesis. Data on ratings and market signals on cr ... More


Estimating Loss-in-Output as a Cost of a Financial Crisis Estimating Loss-in-Output as a Cost of a Financial Crisis
Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, June 2019
The global financial crisis caused a huge loss of economic output, depletion of financial wealth, extended unemployment, psychological consequences and other significant costs. A quantitative exploration of modelling loss-in-output as a cost of financial crisis using m ... More


How Accurate are Global Trade-Finance Data? How Accurate are Global Trade-Finance Data?
Brian Sturgess, World Economics, June 2019
Over 80% of international trade is financed by some form of credit, but the size of the trade finance market has received little attention by economists. It has been estimated that there is currently a world trade finance gap of around US$1.5 trillion acting as a drag o ... More


Income Inequality and Foreign Direct Investment in Australia Income Inequality and Foreign Direct Investment in Australia: A Comprehensive Review
Anna Ploszaj, Tarlok Singh & Jen-Je Su, World Economics, June 2019
Income, wealth and consumption are three main factors that determine people’s standard of living. Many organisations in Australia report that in recent years the Australian standard of living has been changing, with some people falling behind. This paper examines the ma ... More


Why Do Currency Crises Recur? Why Do Currency Crises Recur?: Lessons from Argentina and Turkey
Graham Bird, Graham Bird & Graham Bird, World Economics, June 2019
Argentina and Turkey experienced currency crises in 2018, having also had crises in 2001. Why do crises recur? There are three generations of model that help to explain in theory why currency crises occur, although in practice the theories need to be amalgamated. The re ... More